EMI Templeton Reports

Much Ado About Nothing

Much Ado About Nothing

SEPTEMBER REPORT 2017

Stocks fell back owing to natural disasters and North Korean saber-rattling. Even so, peso investments continue positive YTD 2017. Global factors: economic expansion and pro-growth goals of Trump administration, despite protectionist and geopolitical threats. Local factor: improvement in NAFTA prospects.


Markets: Summer Breeze

Markets: Summer Breeze

AUGUST REPORT 2017

Peso investments have been positive over the first 7 months of 2017. Global factors: economic expansion and announcement by Trump administration of pro-growth intentions, despite protectionist threats. Local factor: improvement of NAFTA outlook. Foreseeable global risks: failure to execute pro-growth proposals in US, Brexit problems, oil price, geopolitical crises.

First semester: markets beat politics

First semester: markets beat politics

JUly REPORT 2017

Peso investments have been positive during the first semester, owing to US$ dollar weakness, overcoming political concerns. Global factors: lower political risk and strong global economy. Local factors: NAFTA outlook and positive midterm elections.

Some clouds clear

Some clouds clear

JUNE REPORT 2017

Peso investments have been positive for the first 5 months of 2017, with strong peso appreciation vs. the US$, a reversal from 2016. Pro-growth policies in the US have helped, as well as positive growth in EM and Mexico.

Mexican stocks peak: is it sustainable?

Mexican stocks peak: is it sustainable?

MAY REPORT 2017

The Mexican stock market, after a mediocre performance in 2016 due to Trump’s election, touched an all-time peak in pesos in May, 2017. Main causes have been pro-growth policies of the Trump administration and a rejection of populism in recent European elections.


Peso Interest Rates: Outlook 2017

Peso Interest Rates: Outlook 2017

APRIL REPORT 2017

In Mexico, rates are high owing to depreciation of the peso in 2016, with resulting inflation, and a proactive tightening cycle from Bank of Mexico. In 2017 there will be more passthrough from peso depreciation to inflation but more moderate hikes from Bank of Mexico.


Fibras: in the eye of the storm

Fibras: in the eye of the storm

MARCH REPORT 2017

Since inception in 2011, Fibras (Mexican REITs) have outperformed stocks, owing to their novelty and NAFTA, and now comprise 3% of stock market capitalization. Since the election, Fibras have been the worst asset class in Mexico, owing to the threat Trump presents for Mexico-US economic integration.