Financial Times: Eswar Prasad’s own ‘TIGER’ indices predict a dark time for global economy

EMI’s founding academic fellow says the global economy is entering a ‘difficult and dangerous phase’

Excerpt from ‘Why the global economic recovery is in trouble’ (Financial Times, Sept. 18)

The world economy has hit a rough patch on the road to recovery and is in danger of skidding off course. The latest update of the Brookings Institution-FT Tracking Indices for the Global Economic Recovery (TIGER*) reveals abundant cause for gloom. The general picture among G20 economies is one of slowing growth, swooning financial markets, and declining consumer and business confidence.

A series of adverse shocks, coupled with political wrangling that has stymied effective policymaking and added to uncertainty, has crippled growth in advanced economies. Emerging markets have maintained strong growth so far, but the battle against domestic inflation and weaknesses in major export markets are beginning to affect their growth as well.

Read more from the Financial Times

*TIGER indices, developed by Eswar Prasad and Karim Foda, track a set of macroeconomic, financial and confidence variables for the G-20 economies. This update incorporates data on indicators of real economic activity and confidence indicators through July 2011, and financial market data through August 2011.

The indices (at the world level and also broken down by indicator and country) and related articles are posted at: www.ft.com/Tiger

Brookings version (with more detailed country-level data) is at:

http://www.brookings.edu/reports/2011/09_economic_recovery_prasad.aspx