EMI Templeton Reports

USMCA: late cycle or end of cycle?

USMCA: late cycle or end of cycle?

October Report 2018

Globally,positive investments (in peso terms) in 2018: Mexican, oil and S&P, owing to economic cycle doubts, geopolitics, trade wars, rate rises, and emerging markets (EM). NAFTA was renegotiated at the last minute and renamed USMCA.


Will emerging market cycle affect Mexico?

Will emerging market cycle affect Mexico?

September Report 2018

Globally, investments investments affected by rate hikes, trade disputes, and emerging markets (EM) contagion. In Mexico, investments positively affected by US trade agreement, negatively by Canada exclusion and negotiations.

Hyperactive transition: mixed signals

Hyperactive transition: mixed signals

August Report 2018

Globally, investments negative owing to US rate hikes, trade disputes, and problems in Europe. In Mexico, investments positive owing to NAFTA speedup, and mixed presidential transition.

Landslide: hope vs. experience

Landslide: hope vs. experience

July Report 2018

Globally, investments negative due to US rate increases, trade disputes, and problems in Europe. In Mexico, investments positive due to landslide and postelectoral reconciliation.

Indignation and uncertainty

Indignation and uncertainty

May Report 2018

US rate increases strengthened the US$ and lower production raised oil prices. Trade negotiations continue with China. The outlook for Korea seems better, and, for Iran, worse.


Campaigns: on your mark, get set, go?

Campaigns: on your mark, get set, go?

April Report 2018

Globally, fears of a trade war have combined with concerns about the economic cycle (inflation and rates), affecting markets.

Two Shocks

Two Shocks

March Report 2018

March, Trump’s announcement of tariffs on steel and aluminum, followed by the resignation of Cohn, his economic advisor, revived trade war fears.

2018: Some Clouds

2018: Some Clouds

February Report 2018

Mexico faces abnormal, extreme risks. NAFTA renegotiation can be postponed owing to non-resolution of key issues, and the left leads in electoral polls.

Outlook 2018: looking at the abyss

Outlook 2018: looking at the abyss

December Report 2017

In Mexico, in spite of NAFTA renegotiations and a difficult election outlook for 2018, growth and investments have underperformed globally, but still been positive.


After two quakes, NAFTA worries

After two quakes, NAFTA worries

October Report 2017

Peso investments still positive YTD September 2017, despite two strong quakes in Mexico and major hurricanes in the US and Caribbean. As the 4th round begins, NAFTA worries are affecting Mexican investments.