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Globally, investments investments affected by rate hikes, trade disputes, and emerging markets (EM) contagion. In Mexico, investments positively affected by US trade agreement, negatively by Canada exclusion and negotiations.
Globally, investments negative owing to US rate hikes, trade disputes, and problems in Europe. In Mexico, investments positive owing to NAFTA speedup, and mixed presidential transition.
Globally, investments negative due to US rate increases, trade disputes, and problems in Europe. In Mexico, investments positive due to landslide and postelectoral reconciliation.
US rate increases strengthened the US$ and lower production raised oil prices. Trade negotiations continue with China. The outlook for Korea seems better, and, for Iran, worse.
Globally, fears of a trade war have combined with concerns about the economic cycle (inflation and rates), affecting markets.
March, Trump’s announcement of tariffs on steel and aluminum, followed by the resignation of Cohn, his economic advisor, revived trade war fears.
Mexico faces abnormal, extreme risks. NAFTA renegotiation can be postponed owing to non-resolution of key issues, and the left leads in electoral polls.
In Mexico, in spite of NAFTA renegotiations and a difficult election outlook for 2018, growth and investments have underperformed globally, but still been positive.
Peso investments still positive YTD September 2017, despite two strong quakes in Mexico and major hurricanes in the US and Caribbean. As the 4th round begins, NAFTA worries are affecting Mexican investments.
Stocks fell back owing to natural disasters and North Korean saber-rattling. Even so, peso investments continue positive YTD 2017. Global factors: economic expansion and pro-growth goals of Trump administration, despite protectionist and geopolitical threats.