EMI Templeton Reports

Outlook 2018: looking at the abyss

Outlook 2018: looking at the abyss

DECEMBER REPORT 2017

In Mexico, in spite of NAFTA renegotiations and a difficult election outlook for 2018, growth and investments have underperformed globally, but still been positive.


After two quakes, NAFTA worries

After two quakes, NAFTA worries

OCTOBER REPORT 2017

Peso investments still positive YTD September 2017, despite two strong quakes in Mexico and major hurricanes in the US and Caribbean. As the 4th round begins, NAFTA worries are affecting Mexican investments.

 

Much Ado About Nothing

Much Ado About Nothing

SEPTEMBER REPORT 2017
Stocks fell back owing to natural disasters and North Korean saber-rattling. Even so, peso investments continue positive YTD 2017. Global factors: economic expansion and pro-growth goals of Trump administration, despite protectionist and geopolitical threats.

Markets: Summer Breeze

Markets: Summer Breeze

AUGUST REPORT 2017

Peso investments have been positive over the first 7 months of 2017. Global factors: economic expansion and announcement by Trump administration of pro-growth intentions, despite protectionist threats. Local factor: improvement of NAFTA outlook. Foreseeable global risks: failure to execute pro-growth proposals in US, Brexit problems, oil price, geopolitical crises.

First semester: markets beat politics

First semester: markets beat politics

JUly REPORT 2017

Peso investments have been positive during the first semester, owing to US$ dollar weakness, overcoming political concerns. Global factors: lower political risk and strong global economy. Local factors: NAFTA outlook and positive midterm elections.

Some clouds clear

Some clouds clear

JUNE REPORT 2017

Peso investments have been positive for the first 5 months of 2017, with strong peso appreciation vs. the US$, a reversal from 2016. Pro-growth policies in the US have helped, as well as positive growth in EM and Mexico.

Mexican stocks peak: is it sustainable?

Mexican stocks peak: is it sustainable?

MAY REPORT 2017

The Mexican stock market, after a mediocre performance in 2016 due to Trump’s election, touched an all-time peak in pesos in May, 2017. Main causes have been pro-growth policies of the Trump administration and a rejection of populism in recent European elections.


Peso Interest Rates: Outlook 2017

Peso Interest Rates: Outlook 2017

APRIL REPORT 2017

In Mexico, rates are high owing to depreciation of the peso in 2016, with resulting inflation, and a proactive tightening cycle from Bank of Mexico. In 2017 there will be more passthrough from peso depreciation to inflation but more moderate hikes from Bank of Mexico.


Fibras: in the eye of the storm

Fibras: in the eye of the storm

MARCH REPORT 2017

Since inception in 2011, Fibras (Mexican REITs) have outperformed stocks, owing to their novelty and NAFTA, and now comprise 3% of stock market capitalization. Since the election, Fibras have been the worst asset class in Mexico, owing to the threat Trump presents for Mexico-US economic integration.