EMI Templeton Reports
December Report 2019
In Global News, 2019 ends with a dispute with China unresolved, a possible Trump impeachment possible, and Brexit subject to elections in December. Rate cuts are paused and markets are still strong. In Mexico, 2019 was a bad year for economy and security. USMCA difficult for 2019. The AMLO’s
popularity is falling. Short term rates to fall but markets are still firm
October Report 2019
Global slowdown and trade dispute under negotiation. Oil prices in new normal. Likely short/medium-term rate cuts. TMEC possible in 2019. Growth 2020 greater than 2019. Insecurity continues to deteriorate. Expectations of more rate cuts by Banxico. Global risks: sharp slowdown, trade wars, geopolitics, Brexit/Europe, monetary policy, emerging markets.
September Report 2019
Bad month for risk assets due to renewed US-Chinese trade wars. Mexico, Bank of Mexico easing positive for stocks and debt. Global risks 2019-20: sudden slowdown, trade wars, geopolitics, Brexit/Europe, monetary policy, emerging markets. Local risks: dysfunciontal government, nonratification USMCA in US, investment downgrade.
August 2019 Report
Global. Risk assets rose during July due to expected lower rates, but August began with renewed US-China trade disputes. Mexico. Negative economic data and estimates, Pemex business plan, and anti-constitutional legal initiative damaged risk assets.
July Report 2019
Risk assets rise, due to positive trade outcome from G20 meeting in Japan, positive central bank tone, and continued OPEC cut. Risk assets rise due to resolution of tariff dispute with US, local ratification of USMCA, and strong peso due to interest rate differential.
April Report 2019
Globally, risks assets have recovered owing to a weaker slowdown and more dovish monetary policy. In Mexico, risk perception has increased owing to more clear government policies, including centralization of power and redistributive social spending, reflecting the government’s emphasis on politics over economics.
March Report 2019
After the first 100 days, AMLO popularity tops 83%, reflecting his clear separation of politics from economics. The US deals with dysfunctional government, non-ratification of the USMCA and frontier wall dispute could cause a Fitch downgrade.
February Report 2019
Globally, Synchronized slowdown. US: government shutdown. China-US: improved trade outlook. EU: Brexit uncertainty, Emerging Markets (EM): mixed. Mexico local risks: dysfunctional government, non-ratification USMCA in US, lowered credit rating.
December Report 2018
Globally, best investments in 2018 (measured in pesos): Cetes, S&P, US$ and Treasuries. Rate rises indicate end of cycle, oil price down on year. Brexit concerns, but trade war risk fading. In Mexico, after airport cancellation, initial measures by AMLO cause concern. Global risks in 2019, economic cycle and rates, trade wars, geopolítics, Brexit, monetary policy, emerging markets (EM).
October Report 2018
Globally,positive investments (in peso terms) in 2018: Mexican, oil and S&P, owing to economic cycle doubts, geopolitics, trade wars, rate rises, and emerging markets (EM). NAFTA was renegotiated at the last minute and renamed USMCA.
September Report 2018
Globally, investments investments affected by rate hikes, trade disputes, and emerging markets (EM) contagion. In Mexico, investments positively affected by US trade agreement, negatively by Canada exclusion and negotiations.
August Report 2018
Globally, investments negative owing to US rate hikes, trade disputes, and problems in Europe. In Mexico, investments positive owing to NAFTA speedup, and mixed presidential transition.
July Report 2018
Globally, investments negative due to US rate increases, trade disputes, and problems in Europe. In Mexico, investments positive due to landslide and postelectoral reconciliation.
May Report 2018
US rate increases strengthened the US$ and lower production raised oil prices. Trade negotiations continue with China. The outlook for Korea seems better, and, for Iran, worse.
December Report 2017
In Mexico, in spite of NAFTA renegotiations and a difficult election outlook for 2018, growth and investments have underperformed globally, but still been positive.